讲解人 · Jamie
原文
In 2017, there were 90mn children aged zero to four in China, according to the Goldman Sachs report citing National Bureau of Statistics data, compared with the bank’s estimate of 40mn cats and dogs kept as urban pets.
The US bank estimates that this year, those figures will converge at about 58m, and by 2030 China will have more than 70mn urban pets and fewer than 40mn children under the age of four.
In Goldman’s base case, China’s pet food industry will grow from its 2023 level of RMB51bn to RMB63bn in 2030.
The report, which also forecast a phase of M&A-driven consolidation within China’s pet food industry, contrasted its current state with the developed market counterparts of the US and Japan.
In Japan, it noted, the pet population of 20mn is roughly four times bigger than the 5mn under-four human population.
Because of Japan’s entrenched low birth rates and higher pet ownership, the bank in part based its trajectory for China on how pet food sales in Japan related over time to sales of infant milk formula.
Japan’s pet food market, it noted, was now eight times larger than its formula market.
In the US, which is by far the world’s largest pet market, there are more pets than children of any age.
The American Veterinary Medical Association estimates there were 84mn-89mn dogs and 60mn-62mn cats in 2020.
Government data shows there were 73mn children of all ages in the same year.
带着问题听讲解
- 如何理解 toddler 这个词？
- 根据高盛的预测，中国的宠物食品行业将进入什么阶段？
- 根据文章，目前世界上最大的宠物市场是哪？
讲解
重点词汇
forecast
/ˈfɔːr.kæst/
v. 预测
- 词性拓展：forecast（n. 预报）
- 搭配短语：the weather forecast
近义词：predict例句：They forecast a humiliating defeat for the Prime Minister.
outnumber
/ˌaʊtˈnʌm.bɚ/
v. 在数量上超过
- 搭配短语：A outnumbers B.例句：Male students outnumber female students four to one in this university.
toddler
/ˈtɑːd.lɚ/
n. 蹒跚学步的孩子
- 相关词汇：toddle（v. 蹒跚学步）
- 例句：She fell while toddling around.
surpass
/sɚˈpæs/
v. 超过
- 词根词缀：sur-（beyond）搭配短语：A surpasses B.例句：He had surpassed all our expectations.
cite
/saɪt/
v. 引用
- 例句：He cited a poem by Li Bai in his essay.
estimate
/ˈɛs.tɪ.mət/
n. 估算
- 搭配短语：a conservative estimate
converge
/kənˈvɝːdʒ/
v. 汇聚，汇合
- 相关词汇：verge（n. 边缘）
- 搭配短语：on the verge of sth.
- 例句：He was on the verge of tears.
词根词缀：con-（with，together）例句：Five rivers converge here.
-driven
/ˈdrɪv.ən/
suffix. 被……驱动的
- 相关词汇：drive（v. 驱使；驾驶）
- 例句：He is driving me crazy.
搭配短语：happiness-driven growth搭配短语：a money-driven person
consolidation
/kənˌsɑː.ləˈdeɪ.ʃən/
n. 合并，统一
- 相关词汇：consolidate
- 相关词汇：solid
- 词根词缀：con-（together）
- 例句：We consolidate information from a wide range of sources.
counterpart
/ˈkaʊn.tɚ.pɑːrt/
n. 相对应的事物或人
- 相关词汇：counter（v. 反驳；抵消）
- 例句：She decided to counter fierce criticism.
- 例句：Exercise helps to counter the effects of stress.
例句：Japanese officials are discussing this with their French counterparts.
entrenched
/ɪnˈtrɛntʃt/
adj. 根深蒂固的，难以撼动的
- 英文释义：strongly established and not likely to change例句：Ageism is entrenched in that country.
trajectory
/trəˈdʒɛk.tɚ.i/
n. 发展轨迹；运动轨迹
- 例句：The bomb followed a high trajectory towards its target.搭配短语：the trajectory of French politics
veterinary
/ˈvɛt.ər.ɪˌnɛr.i/
adj. 兽医的
- 相关词汇：veterinarian，vet（n. 兽医）
