从“唱衰”到“惊艳”:中国经济打破悲观预期

回望刚刚过去的 2025 年,全球经济学家们的态度经历了一次彻底的转变。去年年初,市场上充斥着悲观的声音,许多分析师断言,中国经济难逃“日本化”的命运,注定要陷入漫长的停滞期。然而,剧情在随后的一年里发生了反转。从硬核科技的突破到生物医药的进展,再到高端制造的持续发力,中国不仅稳住了阵脚,还让世界刮目相看。这种逆势反弹究竟是怎么做到的?背后又有那些动力支持?让我们和 Jamie 一起走进今天的文章一探究竟。

讲解人 · Jamie

北外高翻会议口译硕士 金融业 in-house 同传译员

原文


        
** Repeat after me: Never underestimate China **
The year 2025 has been full of dramatic twists and turns.

At the onset of the year, economists were predicting lost decades for China’s economy akin to what Japan experienced in the 1990s.

Now, the perception could not be any more different.

How did China manage to shake off its malaise and dazzle the world with DeepSeek moments in tech, biotech and even defence?

First, China’s focus on higher education is finally paying off.

These days, roughly 40 per cent of high school graduates go to university, versus 10 per cent in 2000.

As a result, the nation’s talent pool has greatly expanded.

Engineering is by far the most popular major for post-graduate studies.

Between 2000 and 2020, the number of engineers ballooned from 5.2 million to 17.7 million.

What this means is that innovative breakthroughs are bound to happen, and that China still has the cost advantage in advanced manufacturing.

Second, China is pragmatic, and the AI arms race offers a good illustration.

Whereas the US is seeking the holy grail — or artificial general intelligence, in this case — China is pushing the industry to be “strongly oriented towards applications”, locking in any advantages that AI might bring to sharpen the nation’s edge in manufacturing.

Third, Chinese brands capable of charging premium prices at home have hit consumers’ soft spot, giving them a fighting chance in global trade as well.

The prime example is Pop Mart International.

The company’s gross profit margin of 70 per cent is more than twice what a generic toymaker can make, thanks to the wickedly cute and viral Labubu.

One thing is for sure: It would be a huge mistake to write off China, the only other economic superpower that matters.

带着问题听讲解

  • 文中 holy grail 一词在上下文中的含义是什么?
  • 中国在高等教育领域的发展带来了哪两个具体优势?
  • 中国在人工智能竞争中的策略与美国有何不同?

讲解


        
** 从“唱衰”到“惊艳”:中国经济打破悲观预期 **
The year 2025 has been full of dramatic twists and turns. At the onset of the year, economists were predicting lost decades for China's economy akin to what Japan experienced in the 1990s.
2025 年充满了戏剧性的转折。年初,经济学家曾预测中国经济将重蹈日本上世纪 90 年代“失去的几十年”之覆辙。
Now, the perception could not be any more different. How did China manage to shake off its malaise and dazzle the world with DeepSeek moments in tech, biotech and even defence?
如今,人们的看法已经完全改变。中国是如何摆脱颓势,在科技、生物技术乃至国防领域频频上演“DeepSeek 时刻”,从而惊艳世界的?
First, China's focus on higher education is finally paying off. These days, roughly 40 per cent of high school graduates go to university, versus 10 per cent in 2000. As a result, the nation's talent pool has greatly expanded.
首先,中国对高等教育的重视正迎来回报。目前约 40% 的高中毕业生升入大学,而 2000 年这一比例仅为 10%。这极大地扩充了国家的人才库。
Engineering is by far the most popular major for post-graduate studies. Between 2000 and 2020, the number of engineers ballooned from 5.2 million to 17.7 million.
工程学是当下最热门的研究生专业,2000 年至 2020 年间,工程师数量从 520 万激增至 1770 万。
What this means is that innovative breakthroughs are bound to happen, and that China still has the cost advantage in advanced manufacturing.
这意味着创新突破注定会实现,而中国在先进制造领域仍保有成本优势。
Second, China is pragmatic, and the AI arms race offers a good illustration. Whereas the US is seeking the holy grail — or artificial general intelligence, in this case — China is pushing the industry to be "strongly oriented towards applications", locking in any advantages that AI might bring to sharpen the nation's edge in manufacturing.
其次,中国注重务实精神,人工智能领域的竞赛就是明证。当美国追求实现通用人工智能的终极目标时,中国正推动行业确立“强应用导向”,锁定人工智能可能带来的优势,以增强制造业竞争力。
Third, Chinese brands capable of charging premium prices at home have hit consumers' soft spot, giving them a fighting chance in global trade as well.
再者,那些能在国内获得高溢价的中国品牌,因精准击中了消费者的心弦,从而也在全球贸易中拥有了竞争力。
The prime example is Pop Mart International. The company's gross profit margin of 70 per cent is more than twice what a generic toymaker can make, thanks to the wickedly cute and viral Labubu.
泡泡玛特便是绝佳例证。凭借那只魔性可爱、风靡全网的 Labubu,该公司的毛利率高达 70%,是普通玩具制造商的两倍多。
One thing is for sure: It would be a huge mistake to write off China, the only other economic superpower that matters.
有一件事是确定无疑的:唱衰中国将是一个巨大的错误,毕竟它是另一个举足轻重的经济超级大国。

重点词汇

twists and turns
蜿蜒曲折;跌宕起伏

  • 相关词汇:twist(v. 扭转,缠绕);turn(v. 转弯)
    例句:The road up the mountain is full of twists and turns.
    例句:It's hard to follow all the twists and turns of the plot.
    近义词:ups and downs

onset

/ˈɑːn.set/

n. 开始;开端

  • 搭配短语:the onset of winter
    搭配短语:the onset of a disease
    搭配短语:at the onset of
    相关词汇:at the outset of

akin to
类似,相似

  • 近义词:similar/comparable to

could not be any more different
完全不同,天壤之别

  • 例句:They are twins, but their personalities couldn't be any more different.
    相关词汇:couldn't be + 比较级
    例句:It couldn't be better.

malaise

/məˈleɪz/

n. 身心不适;社会顽疾

  • 词根词缀:mal-(坏的),-aise(舒适,轻松)
    搭配短语:a general malaise within society
    相关词汇:depression(萧条);recession(衰退)
    搭配短语:economic malaise

dazzle

/ˈdæz.əl/

v. 使感到刺眼;使倾倒

  • 例句:We are dazzled by the strong sunlight.
    例句:The magician dazzled the audience with his tricks.

talent pool
人才库;人才池

  • 搭配短语:fish in the talent pool
    搭配短语:expand their talent pools
    搭配短语:drain the talent pool
    相关词汇:demographic dividend(人口红利)

balloon

/bəˈluːn/

v. 突然增加,激增

  • 词性拓展:balloon(n. 气球)
    例句:The company's profit has ballooned in the past year.
    近义词:mushroom;skyrocket

be bound to
很有可能,肯定会

  • 相关词汇:bind(v. 捆绑)
    近义词:inevitably will
    近义词:be destined to
    例句:With so much hard work, they are bound to succeed.

holy grail
难以实现的梦想;圣杯

  • 文化补充:the Holy Grail 即“圣杯”,传统上被认为是耶稣在最后的晚餐中使用的杯子。
    近义词:the ultimate goal
    例句:For decades, a cure for cancer has been the holy grail of medical research.

lock in
锁定;锁住

  • 搭配短语lock in profits
    例句:A certain method of cooking locks in the flavour of the meat.
    搭配短语lock sb. in

sharpen one’s edge
磨砺锋芒,增强竞争力

  • 相关词汇:edge(n. 刀刃;优势;边缘)
    搭配短语:a competitive edge
    例句:Debating is a great way to sharpen your intellectual edge.
    相关词汇:get an upper hand in(取得优势)

premium

/ˈpriː.mi.əm/

adj. 优质的;价格高的

  • 搭配短语premium prices/products
    例句:A premium seat is usually right up front, with a great view of the stage.
    词性拓展:premium(n. 额外支付的费用)
    • 例句:Consumers are willing to pay a premium for organically grown vegetables.
    搭配短语:at a premium
    • 例句:Space is at a premium in a one-bedroom apartment.
    • 搭配短语:sell/buy at a premium
    相关词汇:cost-effectiveness(性价比)

soft spot
弱点;喜爱,柔情

  • 搭配短语:have a soft spot for
    • 例句:I have a soft spot for puppies.

generic

/dʒəˈner.ɪk/

adj. 一般的,普通的,通用的

  • 近义词:general
    英文释义:relating to a whole group of things rather than to one thing
    搭配短语generic term/name for
    • 搭配短语:Fine Arts is a generic term for subjects such as painting, music, and sculpture.

wickedly

/ˈwɪk.ɪd.li/

adv. 坏地;顽皮地;非常地

  • 相关词汇:wicked(adj. 邪恶的;犀利的;非常好的)
    • 搭配短语:the wicked stepmother
    • 例句:She has a wicked sense of humor.
    • 近义词:excellent
    • 口语表达:This song's wicked.
    近义词:extremely

write off
认为某人/某事无用;注销

  • 英文释义:to decide that sb./sth. is a failure or not worth paying any attention to
    例句:Don't write him off just yet.
    近义词:dismiss

拓展阅读

LABUBU 走红背后的“中国创造”逻辑
从玩具到文化符号
LABUBU 是一款外形夸张、表情狡黠的毛绒玩具,其形象突破了传统可爱风格,将怪趣与亲和力结合,迅速引发年轻群体共鸣。它不仅是玩具,更成为情绪表达和自我认同的象征,在社交平台、收藏圈和消费场景中形成持续热度。
精准回应年轻消费心理
LABUBU 的成功,与年轻消费者价值取向的变化密切相关。相比单一功能,年轻群体更重视情绪体验、审美认同和社交属性。LABUBU 所传达的“做自己”的态度,恰好契合了这种心理需求,使其成为一种具有象征意义的文化产品。
创意与机制的协同作用
在产品形象之外,盲盒机制、跨界联动和社群传播放大了 LABUBU 的吸引力。随机性带来的期待感、持续更新的设计以及广泛的传播,使其从单一商品转变为具有流通价值的潮流符号,增强了用户参与感。
产业链支撑与规模效应
LABUBU 的走红并非孤立现象,而是中国潮玩产业发展的缩影。设计创意、精密制造、供应链管理和市场运营形成完整体系,为原创 IP 的持续输出提供了基础。随着产业成熟,潮玩逐渐成为兼具文化属性与经济价值的新型消费领域。
中国原创 IP 的成长空间
在全球 IP 消费格局中,中国市场规模不断扩大,但人均消费水平仍有提升空间。这为本土原创 IP 提供了成长土壤,也推动品牌在内容、设计和文化表达上不断深化。
LABUBU 的流行,体现了中国原创品牌在创意表达、产业协同和文化传播上的综合能力。通过将本土文化感受与全球审美语言结合,中国原创 IP 正在以更自然的方式走向世界,为全球年轻人提供情绪共鸣与文化认同,也展现了“中国创造”的持续潜力。
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